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The Census Bureau gave a peek at a coming battle within states nationwide over the shape of the country’s congressional district map, with its latest population estimates hinting at fights within Texas, New York, California, Alabama and other states.

Those estimates give demographers and mapmakers the last hint of how the 2020 census will divvy up 435 congressional seats nationwide before the agency releases the official results later this year. The results will determine winners and losers for both the distribution of the districts as well as $1.5 trillion in federal funds each year.

The latest projections suggest that Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, Oregon, and Texas may gain seats following the 2020 census, according to an analysis from Election Data Services. Those seat gains would come at the expense of 10 others: Alabama, California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and West Virginia.

Kim Brace, president of EDS, said the numbers reflect long term trends as rural areas empty out into growing cities and suburbs both within their states and in others.


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